Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 15.867181 19.241489 22.973135 27.380990 32.419306 37.972639 44.529661
2025-11-23 10.542945 14.778240 19.974101 26.706918 35.082943 45.040632 57.644434
2025-11-30 8.153848 12.811329 18.996714 27.570966 38.886701 53.039277 71.778378
2025-12-07 6.174088 10.808082 17.429368 27.173732 40.701548 58.350928 82.591658
2025-12-14 4.936273 9.537740 16.555331 27.428490 43.175739 64.441119 94.515988
2025-12-21 3.671815 7.908852 14.838916 26.166011 43.287312 67.209611 102.017997
2025-12-28 3.078698 7.259917 14.499183 26.841335 46.121355 73.762158 114.841034
2026-01-04 2.546359 6.587745 13.994921 27.152845 48.362922 79.514161 126.726661
2026-01-11 2.141826 6.062040 13.645489 27.637323 50.842227 85.665651 139.364110
2026-01-18 1.844137 5.683827 13.492953 28.405079 53.770420 92.563559 153.289741
2026-01-25 1.467697 5.020493 12.691389 27.938063 54.634748 96.346173 162.747378
2026-02-01 1.232833 4.630088 12.358820 28.254197 56.770566 102.119829 175.313049
2026-02-08 0.984894 4.145332 11.795898 28.165708 58.356168 107.331783 187.599861
2026-02-15 0.740957 3.574113 10.943980 27.431872 58.782370 110.752867 197.349632
2026-02-22 0.633155 3.382143 10.916247 28.311226 62.095267 118.938278 214.725481
2026-03-01 0.485221 2.978666 10.300287 27.905549 63.029739 123.238863 226.127815
2026-03-08 0.392477 2.730750 10.021151 28.165605 65.185923 129.626982 241.014117
2026-03-15 0.271326 2.276203 9.088470 26.876710 64.300557 130.809954 247.547587
2026-03-22 0.227011 2.149626 9.040969 27.566199 67.258348 138.665529 265.126144
2026-03-29 0.182170 1.984998 8.845350 27.884215 69.490352 145.327604 280.921124
2026-04-05 0.148542 1.856329 8.731239 28.378781 72.092895 152.718809 298.112007
2026-04-12 0.124861 1.770718 8.736856 29.162439 75.317953 161.312907 317.523169
2026-04-19 0.089802 1.557405 8.261746 28.685761 75.902217 165.181639 329.081253